The Future of Church and State in America

Even before the Bush appointees joined the Supreme Court, there was strong evidence that it was moving away from a strict separationist perspective and towards an accommodationist perspective.

The Court will continue to reject overt endorsements of religious ideology, such as those represented in (for example) Roy Moore's Ten Commandments display, but it's a safe bet that "under God" will remain in the Pledge of Allegiance and "in God we trust" will remain on our currency. Expect the Court to affirm a "ceremonial" understanding of God-talk within the context of government speech, though the Court will consistently press the fact that this ceremonial understanding may not be used, in any form, as a binding religious test.

The debate over school vouchers will be resolved in a very simple manner, as per Zelman v. Simmons-Harris (2002): Vouchers will be permitted so long as secular alternatives are available to students who want them. The vouchers experiment will expand to include other cities, but the effect on our system of public education will not be overwhelmingly significant.

The faith-based initiative program will remain in place, but politically motivated funding of religious institutions will be subjected to greater scrutiny.

The nondiscrimination interpretation of the First Amendment's religious free exercise clause--holding that laws impacting religious free exercise are not unconstitutional as long as they do not serve a discriminatory function--will also remain in place.