The 2006 elections have come and gone, and the tally is huge: a substantial new Democratic majority in the House, a possible Democratic majority in the Senate, 28 gubernatorial victories, new majorities in nine state legislatures, the South Dakota abortion ban defeated by a landslide, and the first defeat of an anti-gay marriage amendment in Arizona. But in practical terms, what does it all mean?
1. The end of the Bush administration's legislative agenda.
Even before Democratic gains, the Senate was reluctant to enact Bush's more recent policy initiatives. Now, with the national shift from red to blue, it is safe to assume that Bush is officially a lame duck president. There will be no successful right-wing federal legislative initiatives until at least 2009.2. The highest-ranking woman in U.S. history.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will be elected Speaker of the House on January 3rd, 2007, placing her just behind the vice-president in the line of succession--the third-highest-ranking official in the United States. Before Pelosi, the highest-ranking woman in U.S. history was Condoleezza Rice, but unlike Rice, Pelosi holds independent decision-making power.3. Accountability for civil liberties violations.
The House's subpoena power, and the Bush administration's responsibility to keep House committee chairs in the loop on military and intelligence decisions, means that the Bush administration will no longer be able to conduct unconstitutional programs in secrecy. Furthermore, it's entirely possible that new details will emerge regarding previous Bush administration programs, such as Spygate.4. Humane immigration reform.
Much of the year's legislative debate has centered on the punitive H.R. 4437 bill, passed by the conservative House,
which stands in contrast to the more humane S. 2611, passed by the moderate Senate. The expectation has been that some compromise would be achieved in conference--but now that H.R. 4437 is officially off the table, S. 2611 actually represents the
conservative half of a yet-undefined compromise bill.
5. Major pro-choice victories.
During the 1990s, the anti-abortion movement shifted its focus from a full ban on abortion to incremental restrictions, such as parental notification laws. Earlier this year the abortion ban was resurrected in conservative South Dakota, but rejected by a landslide; meanwhile, California's Proposition 85, a parental notification law, was also defeated, and Kansas' aggressively anti-abortion attorney general Phil Kline was defeated in his reelection bid. The pro-choice movement has displayed a level of political power not seen since the late 1970s.6. A dramatic shift in the gay marriage debate.
Social conservatives propose bans on same-sex marriage, even in states where the issue has not come up, on the expectation that it's a sure thing. With the defeat of Arizona's anti-gay marriage amendment, it's no longer a sure thing. Most of the states that would pass anti-gay marriage amendments have already done so, and Democratic gains in Congress mean that the Federal Marriage Amendment won't be viable again until at least 2010, and may be off the table permanently.7. No new amendments creating exceptions to free speech.
The
Flag Desecration Amendment came up again this year--but with Democratic gains in both houses, it won't be getting a two-thirds majority anytime soon.
8. Fewer civil libertarians in the Republican Party.
One of the side effects of the 2006 midterm elections is that many socially progressive Republicans in the northeast, such as senators Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), were soundly defeated by even more socially progressive Democrats. Just as Democrats had been pushed out of the socially conservative South, Republicans have been pushed out of socially progressive New England. If the trend continues, Democrats may well become the de facto civil liberties party on every issue but gun rights--and the Republican Party even more grounded in the theocratic agenda.9. Practical consequences to the Southern Strategy.
A race-baiting campaign in Virginia appears to have cost Senator George Allen (R) his seat, but white senator-elect Bob Corker (R-TN) defeated black candidate Harold Ford with commercials involving white centerfolds and African drums. Why the disparity? Part of it has to do with the candidates' histories. While Corker's racial misadventures might have been accidental, Allen has been praising the Confederacy, displaying nooses in his law office, flying the Stars n' Bars, and generally making himself look like an extra from Deliverance for a good 20 years; the "macaque" remark was only the most recent example. 10. A safer Supreme Court.
Whether the Senate goes 50-50 Republican or 51-49 Democrat, President Bush can't afford to appoint a social conservative to the next vacant Supreme Court seat without facing a filibuster. If President Bush gets the opportunity to select another justice, he will find himself in the same position his father did when
David Souter was selected--and will most likely be forced to choose an equally moderate candidate.
