10 Civil Liberties Issues to Watch in 2010

Immigration Reform

Just as health care reform was the dominant legislative issue of 2009, immigration reform is on the agenda for 2010. If it passes, expect something that looks like the Senate version of the 2006 bill--something that allows a path to citizenship for the 12 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States, but still has a vaguely punitive flavor to it.

Welfare Reform

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) is up for reauthorization next year. The Tea Party movement that so vocally opposed 2009's health care reform legislation will probably focus on immigration policy next year, but there's also a chance it could target federal welfare policy--though its effectiveness in this role is likely to be limited by the fact that Congress has a Democratic majority, and that even the most conservative Democrats tend to support welfare funding.

The Congressional Elections

Republicans are presenting 2010 as the best opportunity for victory since 1994, and the opposition party almost always gain seats in Congress in the first national election after a new president takes power. Republicans are unlikely to make significant gains in the Senate, but could potentially take the House; if they do, it will likely derail Democratic legislative reforms in 2011 and 2012.

Even if they don't, civil liberties issues are going to be part of the election cycle as candidates attempt to rally their bases.

The 2012 Presidential Election

Fundraising is essential to winning a modern presidential primary, so you can probably count on knowing who the major Republican challengers are going to be, and what the major issues are likely to be, by the end of 2010. It's always possible that someone else will enter the picture in 2011 and end up taking the nomination, but it isn't probable.

Possible Supreme Court Replacements

Next year, Justice John Paul Stevens will turn 90 and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will turn 76. Retirement rumors are are always on the table for these two, given Justice Stevens' age and Justice Ginsburg's history of health issues, but they're both seen as fairly liberal justices and Obama is unlikely to replace them with anyone who would fundamentally alter the balance of the Court.

The retirement of the archconservative Justice Antonin Scalia, on the other hand, would be an earthshaking development. It's also really, really unlikely; he'll be turning 73 in March, but he's in good health and he loves his job.

Same-Sex Marriage in the States

Don't expect any new developments in the northeastern United States on same-sex marriage next year; the states that would be likely to legalize it next year have already done so, or will have by the end of the year. (New Jersey's vote comes next week.)

Instead, look to the West--most notably California, where voters will reconsider (and quite possibly reject) Prop 8 in November. Also keep an eye on Illinois, where Democratic governor Pat Quinn has already expressed support for a proposed bill that would bring marriage equality to one of America's most progressive states.

LGBT Rights at the Federal Level

The Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) is in a good position to pass by mid-2010, and Rep. Barney Frank has promised to include the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell" as an amendment to the 2011 defense budget. The proposed lawsuit against Proposition 8, which would legalize same-sex marriage in all 50 states if it goes the right way, is also going to make its way through the courts--though it wouldn't make the Supreme Court docket until 2011.

But don't expect repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in an election year; that isn't really likely to happen until at least 2013, though Democratic House gains in November could make it possible for 2011.

Ratification of CEDAW

The United States is one of only a handful of countries that hasn't yet ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW). While it's not clear that ratification of the agreement would directly change U.S. law in any way, it couldn't hurt. Now that the Obama administration has made statements in support of the Convention, count on this being on the radar in 2010.

Reproductive Rights

The Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA) and a proposal to repeal the Hyde Amendment have both been rattling around Congress, but I'll be very surprised if they go anywhere next year. The pro-choice movement is more likely to be stuck playing defense again, as conservative states push ahead with Personhood Amendments and other indirect attempts to restrict abortion (attempts that will ultimately be shot down by federal courts).

Broadcast Indecency

Federal courts are reexamining the FCC's authority to regulate indecency after the "nipplegate" incident; it is very possible that a federal circuit court may strike down the FCC's authority to regulate indecency altogether. This wouldn't actually change broadcast television content much (it's advertisers that tend to determine standards and practices anyway), but it'd be pretty big news just the same.

What About 2011?

It isn't too early to make a few 2011 predictions, too:

1. The 2010 Census figures will be in by then, so count on redistricting--and the possibility of minority voter disenfranchisement--to be a major issue.
2. The Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) will be up for reauthorization again.
3. Congress, whichever party comes out ahead, will likely arrive in January with some fresh, unexpected legislative agenda items.
4. The Prop 8 lawsuit could hit the Supreme Court about this time, and with it the possibility of legal same-sex marriage in all 50 states.
5. The 2012 Republican presidential field will be locked in by the end of 2011, as the first primaries will take place in January 2012.