Being John McCain: How the Veepstakes Could Define His Candidacy
Monday June 9, 2008
More About: John McCain on Civil Liberties | The Religious Right
Before the primaries, conventional wisdom had it that John McCain would not win the nomination because no senator had won the White House since 1960. As conservative pundit Paul Weyrich wrote in July 2006:
McCain has a liberty that Obama does not have: He can be whoever he wants to be, because the media hasn't really decided who he is yet. He also has a disadvantage that Obama does not have: His campaign hasn't really developed a sense of purpose that goes beyond supporting the Bush administration's unpopular long-term commitment to the Iraq War, and the longer he's defined by that unpopular position, the more difficult his campaign will be. McCain will soon decide what kind of general election candidate he's going to be. He has to; November 4th is getting closer every day. And his selection of a running mate, which will dominate the news cycle once it is made, could represent his best emerging opportunity to define his campaign.
There are historical examples of running mates who have served this function. To name a few:
Justin Quinn, our About.com: U.S. Conservative Politics Guide, has listed ten rumored McCain shortlisters. Some could, if selected, indicate the general direction of the McCain campaign. Or not.
Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal: A New Generation Ticket?
Both candidates are young governors (Palin is 44, Jindal 36), demographic "firsts" (Palin would be the first female VP, Jindal the first non-white VP), and socially conservative. But both are also relatively new to the political scene, with public images as malleable, in most respects, as McCain's.
Mike Huckabee or Sam Brownback: An Evangelical Unity Ticket?
The selection of Huckabee or Brownback would indicate that the McCain campaign takes the concerns of the Religious Right very seriously, and is willing to position itself as more socially conservative in an effort to bring out the base. Choosing a candidate who identifies as socially conservative to such an extent would unite his party, but it could also seriously harm his credentials as a centrist.
Charlie Crist: The Ultimate Centrist Ticket?
Florida governor Crist is perhaps best known for not intervening in the Terri Schiavo case while serving as state attorney general, earning him the enmity of the Religious Right. His support of same-sex civil unions and embryonic stem cell research probably contribute to that impression as well. Despite this (or perhaps partly because of it), he won the 2006 gubernatorial race to succeed Jeb Bush. Crist is, in some respects, the most promising McCain running mate from a civil liberties perspective--as selecting Crist would indicate that the donors and volunteers coalescing around McCain, who will largely determine the success or failure of his first-term agenda if he is elected, will be either centrists or very centrist-friendly on social issues.
Elizabeth Dole or Kay Bailey Hutchison: The Party Elders Ticket?
Dole and Hutchison are both senators, they will both be over 65 at the time of the election, and they both represent McCain's generation of Reagan Republicans. They're well loved by the Religious Right, but they're not really part of the Religious Right in the way that Huckabee and Brownback are. As is true with Palin and Jindal, they are in some respects as easy to redefine as McCain himself.
Does Any of This Matter?
It might or might not. The trajectory of a campaign is very significant because it determines the donor base, the voter base, the staff base (who would in many cases seamlessly transition into becoming White House staff and advisors in the event of a McCain presidency), and the volunteer base. In other words, the running mate John McCain selects in 2008 may be instrumental in helping him establish a national base of support for the general election, a base towards which he will be indebted, and somewhat accountable, during his presidency. If McCain is elected on a Religious Right platform, this indicates that he will want or need to make concessions towards the Religious Right as part of his policy agenda. If McCain is elected on a centrist platform, on the other hand, then he will be under greater pressure to steer clear of Religious Right influences.
But the selection of a running mate doesn't necessarily indicate the trajectory of a campaign, and the trajectory of a campaign doesn't necessarily indicate a candidate's eventual policy positions. There's also the possibility that a running mate can be used to compensate for a candidate's platform instead of as a representation of it. McCain could very well select Mike Huckabee as his running mate in order to please the Religious Right, for example, and then run the same campaign he would run if his running mate were Charlie Crist. Likewise, it's possible that McCain could pick Charlie Crist in order to maintain some centrist appeal while pitching himself to the party base. All of these choices rest in McCain's hands and in the hands of his advisors.
See also:
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Would [the nominee] be McCain? No Senator has won the Presidency since JFK in 1960.What I think might have frustrated Weyrich was not McCain's lack of conservatism--for goodness sakes, McCain has been far more consistent in his social conservatism than has Mitt Romney, of whom Weyrich spoke highly in the same op-ed--but rather his reluctance to affiliate with the Religious Right, despite sharing many of their positions. This reluctance stems from the Senate's tendency towards complexity, subtlety, compromise, and restraint--traits that don't usually make for a winning presidential candidacy, but traits that also introduce a great deal of ambiguity to McCain's civil liberties platform. McCain has considerable room to redefine himself over the coming weeks. He can convincingly play a foreign policy hawk, a traditional conservative, a centrist, a Goldwater libertarian, a maverick, or something else. Any of these labels, mutually contradictory though they may be, could be justified on the basis of McCain's long and complex, but largely consistent, history.
Moreover, long-time Senators have cast hundreds of votes, any of which can be used in an attack ad ...
Many Governors are looking at the race. Governors have been elected far more often than have Senators in recent times ...
Conservatives either can elect a winner in 2008 or be driven to the margins should McCain or Rudy [Giuliani] get elected. It is our choice. The question is, will we make it?
McCain has a liberty that Obama does not have: He can be whoever he wants to be, because the media hasn't really decided who he is yet. He also has a disadvantage that Obama does not have: His campaign hasn't really developed a sense of purpose that goes beyond supporting the Bush administration's unpopular long-term commitment to the Iraq War, and the longer he's defined by that unpopular position, the more difficult his campaign will be. McCain will soon decide what kind of general election candidate he's going to be. He has to; November 4th is getting closer every day. And his selection of a running mate, which will dominate the news cycle once it is made, could represent his best emerging opportunity to define his campaign.
There are historical examples of running mates who have served this function. To name a few:
- In 1976, incumbent vice-president Nelson Rockefeller, widely regarded as a liberal Republican, was dropped from Republican president Gerald Ford's ticket and replaced by the more conservative Bob Dole. This was a very significant precursor to the Reagan Revolution of 1980, which incorporated the Religious Right into the Republican Party.
- When Bob Dole ran for president himself in 1996, he selected a well-known centrist, Jack Kemp, as his running mate in an effort to offset concerns that he was too socially conservative.
- In 2000, Al Gore selected Joe Lieberman, a centrist and former critic of the Clinton administration, as his running mate. This served the purpose of both distancing Gore from the Clinton record, and potentially broadening Gore's appeal in heartland states. Gore stuck to a socially moderate message for the duration of his campaign, often using the phrase "family values" (which had previously been co-opted by Republicans).
- In 2004, John Kerry selected John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate, ostensibly in an effort to appeal to middle America. Kerry then ran a campaign focusing more on his history as a veteran than on his views as a reformer.
Justin Quinn, our About.com: U.S. Conservative Politics Guide, has listed ten rumored McCain shortlisters. Some could, if selected, indicate the general direction of the McCain campaign. Or not.
Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal: A New Generation Ticket?
Both candidates are young governors (Palin is 44, Jindal 36), demographic "firsts" (Palin would be the first female VP, Jindal the first non-white VP), and socially conservative. But both are also relatively new to the political scene, with public images as malleable, in most respects, as McCain's.
Mike Huckabee or Sam Brownback: An Evangelical Unity Ticket?
The selection of Huckabee or Brownback would indicate that the McCain campaign takes the concerns of the Religious Right very seriously, and is willing to position itself as more socially conservative in an effort to bring out the base. Choosing a candidate who identifies as socially conservative to such an extent would unite his party, but it could also seriously harm his credentials as a centrist.
Charlie Crist: The Ultimate Centrist Ticket?
Florida governor Crist is perhaps best known for not intervening in the Terri Schiavo case while serving as state attorney general, earning him the enmity of the Religious Right. His support of same-sex civil unions and embryonic stem cell research probably contribute to that impression as well. Despite this (or perhaps partly because of it), he won the 2006 gubernatorial race to succeed Jeb Bush. Crist is, in some respects, the most promising McCain running mate from a civil liberties perspective--as selecting Crist would indicate that the donors and volunteers coalescing around McCain, who will largely determine the success or failure of his first-term agenda if he is elected, will be either centrists or very centrist-friendly on social issues.
Elizabeth Dole or Kay Bailey Hutchison: The Party Elders Ticket?
Dole and Hutchison are both senators, they will both be over 65 at the time of the election, and they both represent McCain's generation of Reagan Republicans. They're well loved by the Religious Right, but they're not really part of the Religious Right in the way that Huckabee and Brownback are. As is true with Palin and Jindal, they are in some respects as easy to redefine as McCain himself.
Does Any of This Matter?
It might or might not. The trajectory of a campaign is very significant because it determines the donor base, the voter base, the staff base (who would in many cases seamlessly transition into becoming White House staff and advisors in the event of a McCain presidency), and the volunteer base. In other words, the running mate John McCain selects in 2008 may be instrumental in helping him establish a national base of support for the general election, a base towards which he will be indebted, and somewhat accountable, during his presidency. If McCain is elected on a Religious Right platform, this indicates that he will want or need to make concessions towards the Religious Right as part of his policy agenda. If McCain is elected on a centrist platform, on the other hand, then he will be under greater pressure to steer clear of Religious Right influences.
But the selection of a running mate doesn't necessarily indicate the trajectory of a campaign, and the trajectory of a campaign doesn't necessarily indicate a candidate's eventual policy positions. There's also the possibility that a running mate can be used to compensate for a candidate's platform instead of as a representation of it. McCain could very well select Mike Huckabee as his running mate in order to please the Religious Right, for example, and then run the same campaign he would run if his running mate were Charlie Crist. Likewise, it's possible that McCain could pick Charlie Crist in order to maintain some centrist appeal while pitching himself to the party base. All of these choices rest in McCain's hands and in the hands of his advisors.
See also:
Comments
There’s been noted buzz of late on rising GOP star Louisiana Gov Bobby Jindal as a McCain prospective Veep. Certainly Jindal is more than very good, However, I believe there’s some “strategerie” going on here. The “real” beneficiary of the Jindal talk is the other rising GOP star, Alaska Gov Sarah Palin. Palin’s got everything that Jindal has (new/exciting, wildly popular, ethics and spending reformer, core conservative etc.) and more — mother of 5 w/remarkable bio, she’s 8 yrs older than Jindal, Alaska energy issue, and set to garner the disenfranchised female Hillary voter (I don’t believe Dem leaders can dump Obama).
Getting Jindal’s name out first — at Team McCain’s BBQ for instance — sets the stage for the obvious choice, Palin. For example, albeit Rush Limbaugh introduced Palin’s name, and later Jindal’s as good Veep choices, of late Rush has been praising the name of Jindal while on his very same shows discussing at great length the frustrated female Hillary voter and the global warming hysteria/need for energy development, without mentioning Palin’s name as the obvious beneficiary of those two issues. Rush walks a fine line, introducing Palin, yet can’t, at least yet, reiterate much, knowing that his praises may be counter-productive to many a swing, moderate and/or formerly Dem voter (who’s against Obama and switching to McCain). Moreover, while I feel that Palin has more real accomplishment, experience and qualification than Obama (and Hillary combined, albeit w/Obama the bar is pretty low), the only potential argument against Palin is she’s a newbie to the national scene. By having Jindal out there first as a VP prospect “passing” the “experience” and “new to the national scene” test, implicitly passes Palin as well. (For that matter Palin’s got as much if not more experience and accomplishment than Florida Gov Crist who’s only been Gov for 2 yrs — and the media has been touting Crist as a VP prospect.)
That’s my thinking at least.
Tom,
When you wrote, “the selection of Huckabee or Brownbeck would indicate that the McCain campaign takes the concerns of the Relgious Right very seriously” you were correct, but you were only getting half of the story.
You were ignoring the fact that Huckabee appeals to many, like myself, who are not Evangelical Christians. As a result, you missed something important about the meaning of a Huckabee VP nod.
Huckabee was the one candidate who differed with the broken Republican economics of today. He was the candidate who endorsed the FairTax and who was willing to say positive things about Fair Trade, not just Free Trade. The choice of Huckabee would define McCain as a Maverick who is not tied to the failed Bush economics.
Howard Richman
http://www.jews4huckabee.blogspot.com
Howard, that’s a fair point. Huckabee was also one of the better Republican presidential candidates (from a civil liberties perspective) on immigration and criminal justice reform.
Ted, I think the buzz with Jindal is that he’s perceived in some circles as the anti-Obama–an exciting young, nationally prominent candidate of color who happens, in this case, to be a Republican. There’s a lot more to Obama, and to Jindal for that matter, than that–but that’s the soundbite narrative. I don’t think Jindal or Palin will end up getting the VP slot (though I could be wrong–it’s just a hunch), but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them delivers the keynote at the convention.
Tom,
Thank you for your response. I am a big FairTax supporter for three reasons:
1. It levels the international playing field by taxing foreign products sold in the US, but not American-made products sold abroad.
2. It encourages Americans to save because savings are not taxed until they are spent, or the income earned from them is spent.
3. Eliminating the personal income tax makes our society much more free.
Howard
Lindsey Graham is 52.
Jana, duly corrected. Thank you!
Howard, economic issues aren’t really my strong suit, but my main concern re: the FairTax would be its impact on 501(c)(3) nonprofits, and the secondary impact of reduced 501(c)(3) funding on private-sector direct services such as food pantries, homeless shelters, educational initiatives, and so forth, services that the government would then have to take over (increasing the size of the budget) or not (at inestimably high human cost). Huckabee used to be a pastor, so I suspect he may have an answer on this point, but it’s something that has always been itching in the back of my mind. I like the idea of the FairTax in principle, but I’m concerned about the possibility of unintended consequences.
Ted,
Actually, the FairTax may be better than the current income tax as far as charities are concerned. Currently, only those who itemize can get charitable deductions. Under the FairTax all charitable contributions are tax free since the FairTax would not be charged on them.
Howard
Tom H, take a look at this Palin for Veep video on YouTube and then tell me you don’t think she’ll get the nod from McCain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXfiOSCfY44
I believe Sen. McCain will pick Governor Sarah Palin for his VP.
I suspect this is why he is now willing to “look” at ANWR again and has changed his position on off-shore drilling. It may be a strategy to be on the same page as Palin and to be able to hit the energy issues very hard in the campaign. She is the most experienced Governor in America on oil and energy issues and can help McCain hammer home the “Drill Here, Drill Now” campaign.
Sara Palin can also help balance the ticket. She has a record of fighting corruption even in her own party, she has strong conservative beliefs, she hunts, she fishes, is a lifetime member of the NRA and has a pro-life stance. She is a mother to 5 children including a baby with Downs Syndrome that she chose not to abort even though she knew this fact early in her pregnancy. She actually lives her positions.
Not to diminish this very competent and amazing Governor with a shallow remark, but she is also a quite beautiful woman with great TV presence (which doesn’t hurt). With Sarah Palin we have a VP candidate that will grab the country’s attention and gain huge support for the Republican ticket all the while stealing the thunder from Obama with her freshness and tenacity.
I think Obama will end up looking like the typical Chicago ‘machine’ politician he is with Sarah Palin on the opposing ticket.
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